Component orders may be exceeding end market demand.

Component orders may be exceeding end market demand.

Despite a predicted ‘near-recession’ global economy, first quarter world electronic equipment sales were up 12% (1Q’08 vs. 1Q’07)—but off 10% compared to 4Q’07.

The predicted ‘global slowdown’ became fact in early 2008 as a combination of normal seasonality, heavy snows in China, Asian New Year plant shutdowns and a weak economy combined to depress 1Q’08 electronic industry sales.

Electronic equipment growth has slowed worldwide—both due to normal post-holiday seasonality and a softer economy.

Recession fears continue in the USA following last summer’s housing/sub-prime mortgage mess, made worse by higher oil prices, and then accelerating as both consumer and business spending has been curtailed.

Let’s call it like it is.

We are now in the seasonal “slow period” – the trough between the Aug-Nov “holiday ramp-up” and the late spring “recovery.”

About $1.6 trillion of electronic equipment will be produced globally in 2007.

If consumer/business spending slows, the world electronic food chain will suffer. 

2Q’07 global OEM sales grew 6% sequentially and 8% versus the same quarter last year.

The autumn busy season is around the corner, and it appears that we are also now in the early recovery phase of the next electronics business cycle.

Based upon data through May it appears that the current world semiconductor business cycle has bottomed.

Soft demand early, flat mid-year, growth returning in late 2007.

The 11th semiconductor ‘business cycle’ since 1984 is somewhat anemic as 2007 appears to be decelerating to single-digit chip growth.

2006 finished on a high note: electronic equipment sales rose 8% in 4Q’06 vs. 4Q’05 based upon composite financials of a broad range of multinational companies.

The world produced about $1.5 trillion of electronic equipment in 2006 of which (based upon semiconductor consumption) 18.4% was electronically assembled in N. America, 16.4% in Europe, 19.0% in Japan and 46.2% in the rest of the world (primarily SE Asia).

In spite of a 4Q’06 slowdown in personal computer production (due to a delay in Microsoft Vista and microprocessor shortages in Asia), global electronic equipment demand remained reasonably strong at year-end 2006.

Based upon 3Q’06 financial data from a broad range of companies in the global electronics ‘food chain’, we now have an updated, quantitative picture of 2006 business conditions.