Modest seasonal & cyclical recovery now underway.

Based upon data available in mid-April, global industrial production growth still looked quite bleak, and electronic equipment shipments continued to decline (except for Taiwan/China) at an accelerating rate.

The world is clearly in recession. 

When will the global electronics ‘food chain’ reach bottom and begin to recover? That is the ‘$64 thousand dollar’ question!

Global electronic business conditions began strong in 2008 but then ‘crashed and burned’ late in the year. 

Writing an uplifting column is tough this month!

Forecasts have recently been slashed for the entire global electronics food chain.

Global GDP growth continues to slow, with Western Europe and North America the main culprits.

The first half of 2008 was surprisingly strong for many members of the global electronic food chain.

Component orders may be exceeding end market demand.

Component orders may be exceeding end market demand.

Despite a predicted ‘near-recession’ global economy, first quarter world electronic equipment sales were up 12% (1Q’08 vs. 1Q’07)—but off 10% compared to 4Q’07.

The predicted ‘global slowdown’ became fact in early 2008 as a combination of normal seasonality, heavy snows in China, Asian New Year plant shutdowns and a weak economy combined to depress 1Q’08 electronic industry sales.

Electronic equipment growth has slowed worldwide—both due to normal post-holiday seasonality and a softer economy.

Recession fears continue in the USA following last summer’s housing/sub-prime mortgage mess, made worse by higher oil prices, and then accelerating as both consumer and business spending has been curtailed.

Let’s call it like it is.

We are now in the seasonal “slow period” – the trough between the Aug-Nov “holiday ramp-up” and the late spring “recovery.”

About $1.6 trillion of electronic equipment will be produced globally in 2007.

If consumer/business spending slows, the world electronic food chain will suffer.