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Green Shoots or Desert? V, U, W–Shape or Alphabet Spaghetti? PDF Print E-mail
 

Posted by Jade Po Kellard on 22 June 2009 at 06:00

On the face of it, April’s data showed a 7.6 percent decline in total semiconductor sales versus March 2009 but, after adjusting for the 5-week long March, this translates into a whopping 15.5 percent growth.  The corresponding numbers for total ICs were minus 9.3 and plus 13.4 percent respectively.  This is the strongest April month-on-month growth since April 1996.

That’s the good news.  Given the still delicate state of the global economy, this growth is not however directly driven by increased end-user demand, instead it is purely a correction to the steep Q4-08/Q1-09 inventory declines.  In other words, the markets clearly over-reacted to the September 2008 global economic collapse, sucking the supply chain dry, paving the way for this counter-balancing period of inventory replenishment.

Historically we can expect this to last through to Q3-09.  Beyond that, growth will depend on the underlying end-market demand.

Want to learn more?  If you require accurate industry outlook and forecast information sign up now to Future Horizons 'Industry Forecast Seminar Mid-Term Update'.  The seminar will be held in London, England on Tuesday, 21 July 2009.  This one day seminar is an interactive extension of the Global Semiconductor Monthly Report; it gives you the chance to ask our analysts your questions and get their views and insights, as well as providing you with the opportunity to talk and hear from your industry peers.

Future Horizons hit the target spot on at their January's Forecast Seminar; the Mid-Term Update seminar will be no exception.

http://www.futurehorizons.com

   
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Keywords : Industry News, Europe, Green Shoots or Desert? V, U, W-Shape or Alphabet Spaghetti?


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